There is a reason why I call this post the Reality Assessment. It is not some quick, knee-jerk reaction to last Thursday’s preseason game against the New Orleans Saints. Hence, the full week of reflection between the game and this post. As we all know, this was the first preseason game and what can one truly glean from it?

In the first week of preseason, the starters barely play. In fact, some starters don’t even enter the game (e.g. Saints quarterback Drew Brees dressed but did not play). The backups see the majority of time on the field, and the “threes” see more than just mop up duty.

Sure, it was a good start for both first teams. The starting offense opened the game with a nice 80 yard drive that resulted in a touchdown; albeit, with a 17 yard scramble by quarterback Joe Flacco that sustained the drive. The starting defense had two three and outs; albeit, the Saints were without All-Pro quarterback Brees.

And of course the game concluded with a comeback win led by Bryn Renner and the backup offense, giving fans (like this one and his six year old son) an exciting finish.

Even though first round draft pick Breshad Perriman did not play, the Ravens’ 2015 rookie class had an impressive debut. Maxx Williams had his crushing 4th and 20 catch and run to keep alive the final drive of the game. According to Pro Football Focus, defensive tackle Carl Davis played 41 of 69 snaps, played great against the run, had a batted down pass, three tackles, and a quarterback hit. Outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith had four quarterback hurries and a sack. Running back Buck Allen ran hard, missed some opportunities, had a dropped pass, but he did rumble off a 12 yard run. Cornerback Tray Walker gave up a three catches on four targets, but only 5.3 yards per reception, and he had a couple of nice open field tackles in run support. Tight end (personal favorite of Baltimore Sun’s Mike Preston and mine), Nick Boyle had an up and down day but still posted four receptions for 25 yards. Sixth-round pick wide receiver Darren Waller had two catches for 22 yards and showed more in-game speed than people were expecting—he drew a couple of interference penalties.

This impressive batch of rookies has had me thinking. How has this rookie class compared to past rookie classes? Have the Ravens ever had a deeper draft class?

Ok, I know I am breaking several rules here. You can’t judge a rookie class this soon—three years down the road is the golden rule. As I have stated, it is training camp and these are good rules to follow during training camp and preseason. And finally, this is the Reality Assessment, not the Knee-Jerk Assessment. And what I am about to do is more knee-jerk in nature.

The Ravens have a reputation of being stellar drafters. I wanted to test that theory against what I have seen from this year’s rookie draft class.

This is an exercise in depth of draft class, not necessarily all-star power. When deciding if a player was a justifiable draft pick, I considered these criteria: games played in the NFL, longevity of career, and role on the team (starter or significant contributor). Accolades (Pro Bowl selections, 1st and 2nd team All-Pro selections, individual awards earned, and status as a significant Super Bowl team contributor) were considered, but only in the larger picture (e.g. If four of six players from a draft were contributors, this would be more significant than if one of eight players from a particular draft made several Pro Bowls while the other seven players did not materialize).

Taking a cue from football video games both past and present, I have broken down the draft classes into five categories. Paying homage to one of the most incredibly fun video games of all-time, Tecmo Super Bowl gets the highest honor (go find the NFL Films awesome documentary on the current Tecmo Super Bowl craze). The other categories, from highest of honor to lowest, are taken from the classic levels of play from EA Sports Madden NFL game: All-Madden, All-Pro, Pro, and Rookie.

Tecmo Super Bowl Drafts
1996 (4 of 7 picks): Jonathan Ogden, Ray Lewis, DeRon Jenkins, Jermaine Lewis
Comment: It is fitting that the first draft in Raven’s history is also one of its best. Two surefire Hall of Famers (current HOF Ogden and soon-to-be Ray Lewis), a combined 26 Pro Bowl selections (Ogden- 11, Ray- 13, Jermaine- 2), and 20 All-Pro selections (Ogden- 9, Ray- 10, Jermaine-1) make this draft a slam dunk. Adding three players that had a direct impact on Super Bowl XXXV doesn’t hurt either. You might question Jenkins on this list, but he managed close to 100 games in his career, and he was a two-year starter.

1999 (3 of 4 picks): Chris McAlister, Brandon Stokley, Edwin Mulitalo
Comment: An unusually odd year in that the Ravens only had four picks. Even though Stokley never accomplished much for the Ravens (he found his success with Peyton Manning in Indianapolis and Denver), this draft was quite impressive. Three of the four picks had highly successive career, and without Mulitalo we wouldn’t have this.

2001 (5 of 7 picks): Todd Heap, Gary Baxter, Casey Rabach, Ed Hartwell, Joe Maese
Comment: This was a great draft haul. Though Baxter and Hartwell only played their first contracts for Baltimore and fizzled out after they left Baltimore, they were both starters for the majority of their time with the Ravens. Rabach also played his first contract with Baltimore, but had a very productive career in Washington. Maese was the long snapper for four years. This was a deep and productive draft. Considering this was the draft that followed Super Bowl XXXV makes it even more impressive. 

All-Madden Level Drafts
1997 (5 of 12 picks): Peter Boulware, Jamie Sharper, Kim Herring, Jeff Mitchell, Cornell Brown
Comment: A great draft as nearly half the picks were major contributors. Add in Boulware’s accolades (4 Pro Bowls, one All-Pro, and Defensive Rookie of the Year), Sharper’s Super Bowl impact, Mitchell’s longevity at center, and Brown’s reserve and special teams’ role and you have a deep draft. Sure there were misses (Jay Graham, Ralph Staten, Wally Richardson, and Steve Lee-who?), but in this instance the sum is greater than the parts.

2002 (5 of 10 picks): Ed Reed, Anthony Weaver, Dave Zastudil, Chester Taylor, Chad Williams
Comment: Reed heads this rookie class, but major contributors were found in Weaver, Zastudil, Taylor and Williams. Weaver had a solid Raven career and he also played pretty well when he left for the Texans. Notable misses were Ron Johnson, Lamont Brightful, and Javin Hunter.

2003 (7 of 11 picks): Terrell Suggs, Kyle Boller, Jarret Johnson, Ovie Mughelli, Aubrayo Franklin, Tony Pashos, Gerome Sapp
Comment: Boller makes this a controversial draft, but six of the eleven drafted players were starters and Sapp was a key reserve and special teams’ player.

2014 (6 of 9 picks): C.J. Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Crocket Gilmore, Lorenzo Taliaferro, John Urschel, Michael Campanaro
Comment: This draft class is still too early to call. But at the moment, there seems to be quite a bit of talent in starters and contributors. Mosley has already made a Pro Bowl and Jernigan looks like to be the next on the list. If Gilmore, Campanaro, and Urschel continue to stay healthy and progress, this draft might bump up to platinum status.

All-Pro Level Drafts
2006 (5 of 10 picks): Haloti Ngata, Chris Chester, Dawan Landry, Sam Koch, Derrick Martin
Comment: Ngata is the obvious star of the draft, and he should be because of his first round status. Chester (who had a nice career in Washington), Landry, and Koch were all starters in Baltimore. Martin, a surprise name on this list, carved a nice eight year career spanning five teams.

2007 (4 of 7 picks): Ben Grubbs, Marshal Yanda, Antwan Barnes, Le’Ron McClain
Comment: The middle of the line was solidified in the picks of Grubbs and Yanda. Grubbs just missed a Super Bowl when he cashed out in free agency the year of Super Bowl XLVII. McClain was a nice player for a short time in Baltimore—he also found success in San Diego and Kansas City. Barnes has had a nine year career as a pass rushing specialist.

2008 (4 of 10 picks): Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Tom Zbikowski, Haruki Nakamura
Comment: Again, if we were basing this on pure value, Flacco and Rice make this draft platinum. But when looking at the overall depth, this draft doesn’t look as good. Linebacker Tavares Gooden never developed. Wide receivers Marcus Smith and Justin Harper could never have their practice play translate to actually games.

2009 (4 of 6 picks): Michael Oher, Paul Kruger, Laradrius Webb, Cedric Peerman
Comment: Though Oher was a frustrating player because of his lack of consistency, he started every game of his career in Baltimore. That is impressive. Kruger finally put things together during the Super Bowl run, and up until recently Webb has had a positive career in Baltimore. Peerman was one of two drafted players cut by the Ravens in his rookie year (the other was tight end Davon Drew), but Peerman has now found a consistent home in Cincinnati.

2010 (4 of 7 picks): Terrence Cody, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, Arthur Jones
Comment: You may be shaking your head at seeing Cody on this list, but he was a starter for one year and a key contributor for three other years. The others speak for themselves. Would this have been a better draft if not for a flight of stairs? Probably not—the stairs were not at fault.

Pro Level Drafts
2000 (3 of 6 picks): Jamal Lewis, Adalius Thomas, Cedric Woodward- 6th round pick who had a few decent seasons in Seattle after leaving the Ravens
Comment: Lewis and Thomas make this class a solid draft, and one could argue that these two picks could make the whole class higher on this list. Woodward had a very quiet career in Seattle after having a non-descript tenure in Baltimore. However, in my eyes, Travis Taylor and Chris Redman cause this class to be more bronze than silver.

2005 (3 of 7 picks): Mark Clayton, Jason Brown, Derek Anderson
Comment: Conversely, you could argue that this draft be lower on the list. Brown and Anderson went on to have marginal success and careers after leaving the Ravens. Fullback Justin Green and offensive tackle Adam Terry were serviceable in Baltimore, but not enough to warrant making the list. Overall, a “meh” draft class.

2011 (3 of 8 picks): Jimmy Smith, Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee
Comment: Three major contributors to Super Bowl XLVII in the Smiths and McPhee. That being said, five misses in this draft, including Tandon Doss, Chykie Brown, and Jah Reid. Reid, playing well in training camp this year, might just extend his career.

2012 (3 of 8 picks): Courtney Upshaw, Kelechi Osemele, Bernard Pierce,
Comment: This is a tough draft to classify—I originally had this in the silver category. Upshaw and Osemele have been practically starters from day one. During his rookie year, Pierce was major contributor during the Super Bowl year; however, he has flamed out in a big way since. Asa Jackson is at the make-it-or-break-it point of his career and DeAngelo Tyson has been a small time role player for three years. Ultimately, this is a bronze level draft.  

2013 (3 of 10 picks): Brandon Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Rick Wagner
Comment: If this were based on value and impact, this draft would be a gold star draft. Wiliams, Juszczyk, and Wagner are solid starters. Each could be on the cusp of a Pro Bowl. However, missing on seven picks causes this draft to plummet.

Rookie Level Drafts
1998 (1 of 7 picks): Duane Starks
Comment: A truly dud of a draft. Patrick Johnson may warrant a spot on the list because he played 70 games, but that would be a stretch. The other five players in this draft class combined for 85 games, two never played a game (Ron Rogers and Cam Quayle).

2004 (1 of 7 picks): Dwan Edwards
Comment: The redemptive wide receiver draft failed. Devard Darling and Clarence Moore never made it. Linebacker Roderick Greene had an okay career after leaving the Ravens, but not really. When second round pick defensive end Dwan Edwards is the highlight of this draft class, you know things could be better.

This brings us back to what I was watching in last week’s preseason game against the Saints. The 2015 draft class had an impressive debut. There looks to be talent from top to bottom. We aren’t sure what we have in Perriman, but he has the makings of a Torrey Smith, not a Travis Taylor. Tray Walker and Robert “Snack” Myers might be others that are questionable, but maybe not.

If Perriman is legitimate and either Walker of Myers develops as hoped, this draft could look like the following:

2015 (8 of 9 picks): Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, Carl Davis, Za’Darius Smith, Buck Allen, Nick Boyle, Darren Waller Robert Myers or Tray Walker
Comment: If this holds true, this draft would surely be placed in the Tecmo Super Bowl category, earning it the distinguishment as one of the best in Ravens’ history. 

Football officially returns to Baltimore tonight. Albeit, it is preseason football which equates to fans paying full price to watch backups, backups to the backups, and players who may be out of football completely in another two weeks.

With the starters seeing little action and vanilla play calling by the coaches, very little will be gleaned. I do not believe the wide receiver, tight end, middle linebacker, and cornerback issues will be resolved after one game. Nor do I believe we are going to see the coaching staff tip-off their ideas on strategy (blitz, route combinations, etc.), sub-packages, or formation. These decisions will need more time.

However, as a football junkie, I am excited to watch the second, third, and fourth quarters, as there are players I am interested in seeing play in live action games. These players will either have a larger role on the team this year, or they are flat-out fighting to make the 53-man roster and/or practice squad. It will be interesting to see who gets time with “ones,” the “twos,” and who is purely in during mop-up duty.

Some of the players below are players looking to push themselves up the depth chart, and some are fringe players hoping to make a positive impression. This team is fairly set, but injuries the last week are opening up doors of opportunity for some of these players. 

This morning, Sunday August 9th, I joined Ken Zalis and Reeta Hubbard on PressBox's Fantasy and Reality Football Show. My appearance was in the second hour and we chatted about the injury to Matt Elam, the depth (or lack thereof) at the safety position, and who may emerge  from the wide receiver competition.

You can find Ken (@FansFantasy) and Reeta (@the NFLchick) live each Sunday morning on PressBox Online from 10am to 12pm. 

Looking at the 2012 season, the last regular season when there was stability at both safety positions in Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard, the number three safety, James Ihedigbo, played minimal snaps. Ihedigbo played 294 of 936 regular season snaps. He only played one snap in the postseason. When looking at the 2011 season, it wasn’t much different. That year’s third safety was Tom Zbikowski and he played 226 of 1065 regular season snaps, none in the playoffs.

So, we aren’t talking too many snaps here. The Ravens have two experienced players in Anthony Levine and Brynden Trawick. The team also has an intriguing developmental prospect in undrafted free agent Nick Perry. And finally, waiting in the training room is Terrence Brooks. The Ravens will be fine.

What makes this injury to Elam so disappointing was the timing—for Elam and for the Ravens. By all accounts, the light bulb was starting to come on for Elam as he was having a strong offseason. It was a little shocking to hear that his work ethic was just starting to improve, but sometimes year three is when players start realizing their potential—Paul Kruger and Jimmy Smith are two recent players that this was true for. 

This is not to suggest that this was going to be true for Elam. And that is why the timing of this injury is disappointing for the Ravens. The clock is ticking on Elam and the Ravens were hoping to get a clearer picture on what they have in Elam. Next year, the Ravens will have to decide if they want to exercise a fifth year option. (Here is an explanation of the fifth year option as it relates to 2012 draft picks.) In essence, the Ravens could have used this year to evaluate Elam further. The feeling here is he would have had to have a breakout year like Kruger and Smith to warrant an injury guaranteed salary in excess of $5 million. 

Why has Elam struggled so badly?

2013 Draft
Coming into the 2013 NFL draft, there was little debate who the top two safeties were—Kenny Vaccaro from the University of Texas and Elam from the University of Florida. However, there was a player rising on many draft boards and one player I thought was a better fit for the Ravens, Johnathan Cyprien from Florida International University. 

Elam had a nice résumé coming from Florida—176 tackles, six interceptions, three forced fumbles, and 19 pass deflections—and he was named captain on the Gators during his junior year. This was the year that the Ravens were targeting leadership attributes in the draft, as four of the ten draft picks were team captains in college—Elam, middle linebacker Arthur Brown, defensive end John Simon, and defensive end Kapron Lewis-Moore. 

There was some intrigue at the safety position because there were some teams at the end of the first round and beginning of the second round that would be targeting safeties. The 49ers were one of those teams. They 49ers traded up from the 31st pick to the 18th pick with the Dallas Cowboys and selected LSU safety Eric Reid. This left the Ravens choosing between Elam and Cyprien, if they were drafting for need at 32. Sure enough, the Ravens selected Elam at 32 and the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Cyprien with the very next pick, the 33rd overall pick and first pick in the second round.   

Elam was known as a playmaker in college, but many wondered just how high his ceiling would be in the NFL. He was known to be a solid tackler coming out of college too, but that hasn’t exactly been the case in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus’ tackling efficiency rating, Elam was the 23 ranked safety in 2013 and the 96 ranked safety in 2014 (he barely qualified as a safety in 2014 as he took less than 50 percent of his snaps as a safety).

When looking back at the 2013 draft, none of these safeties have truly blossomed. Reid has made a Pro Bowl and Cyprien had a respectable rookie year. Both took a step back in year two, but both fared better than Elam. Highlighted in this great article from Gordon McGuinness from Pro Football Focus, safety is a difficult position to learn on the fly. 

Thrust Into Early Action
That last part, learning on the fly, is something that hindered Elam’s development. The 2013 season didn’t go as planned for the Ravens, on any level. The Ravens had hoped to start Ihedigbo at strong safety and they hoped to start free agent signee Michael Huff at free safety. Huff was horrendous in the season opener against Denver, saw less playing time in week two, and was cut by the Ravens after week four.

Elam was eased into the game plan for the Denver game, playing 13 of 74 snaps. After week one, Elam played 1034 of 1039 snaps—all as a free safety. 

In reality, Elam was not terrible his rookie year. Per PFF, he graded in the middle of the pack in terms of coverage and the bottom third in tackling efficiency.

Miscast?
The real issue is that Elam has been miscast since his arrival in the NFL. He played free safety in his rookie year and he was mostly a nickel cornerback last year. In fact, of his 652 defensive snaps in 2014, Elam played 231 coverage snaps from the slot versus 171 snaps as a safety with run stopping responsibilities—79 of those snaps as an in-the-box safety. With all of the injuries to the secondary last year, Elam played more from the slot than Lardarius Webb—231 snaps to 135 snaps. 

Not having Elam play his natural position, strong safety, has been the biggest issue in Elam’s lack of development. He has never been that coverage type of free safety ever since college. And here he is, playing free safety his rookie year and slot cornerback his second year. Maybe over thinking in coverage caused him to take some poor angles in open space which caused poor tackling. 

Overall, there is no doubt; Elam has been a disappointment thus far. He was thrown into the NFL fire early and has been playing out of position ever since he came into the league. Keep in mind; he was a late first round draft pick which means he wasn’t bustling with talent to begin with. That first round status has certainly caused extra frustration among Ravens’ fans. Had he been a second round draft pick there would not be as much of an uproar. In essence, he is performing like a second round pick.

In the end, the 2015 season is going to be okay. The Ravens will endure this minor setback. As for Elam, let’s hope for a speedy recovery so that he can recapture the momentum he had this past offseason. 

Unfinished business. That seems to be the theme which runs through these quotes from the Ravens.

Unfinished business. Is this phrase pure rhetoric? Probably. Is it just a cliché? Most likely.

All 31 teams that don’t hoist the Lombardi trophy the previous season feel like there is unfinished business the following season. In fact, with quarterback Tom Brady’s four game suspension and the Deflategate controversy still swirling, last year’s Super Bowl winner the New England Patriots probably feel as though there is unfinished business.

So yes, this is mostly rhetoric.

That being said, even before reading these quotes, this upcoming season for the Ravens was starting to feel familiar.

Here are my observations from day one of training camp.

*The offense had some timing issues in 11-on-11 situations. Quarterback Joe Flacco was less January Joe, and more regular season Joe. Balls were a little off the mark, some double clutching took place, and there were a lot of check downs. That being said, many of the perceived check downs were clearly designed plays to get the ball to the running backs out in the flat in open space, a staple of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s attack.

Trestman is known to lean on the passing game, and I predict that we will see more shotgun formations this year than last year from Gary Kubiak’s offense. The Ravens, under Kubiak, ran plays from the shotgun at a league low, 24.1 percent. Under Trestman, I fear that the Ravens may lose some of that smash-mouth mentality and they will throw more often on 3 and short. Yesterday, it was nice to see the Ravens run many play from under center. 

The big story yesterday though was Lardarius Webb and his failed conditioning test. I hadn’t read anything about him that day (cell phones are prohibited) and it took until the wide receivers one-on-ones with cornerbacks until I noticed. I asked Aaron Wilson where he was and he gave me the scoop. Quite a bummer.  

*Steve Smith: He treated yesterday like it was the regular season. Everything he does is fast-paced and with purpose. He has to be great for the younger receivers.
*Breshad Perriman: He looks the part of a number one receiver. This dude is big and fast as advertized. He seems to be further ahead as a complete receiver than when Torrey Smith first arrived. Perriman might open the season as a primary deep target, but he will become more versatile as the season progresses. Let’s hope the knee injury he sustained at the end of practice is minor as coach John Harbaugh advertized yesterday after practice.
*Darren Waller: He had a couple of drops yesterday, but he is big and thick receiver. If his combine speed (4.46 40 yard dash) can translate to quickness, the Ravens may have something.
*DeAndre Carter: Carter is tenacious and a battler. Though he didn’t win much, it was fun watching him during one-on-one battles with the defensive backs.
*Michael Campanaro: He seems fully recovered from leg injuries during OTAs. He was the shifty receiver I remember watching last year at this time.
*Maxx Williams: He was unnoticeable. In fact, I had to search the field during individual position workouts to see if number 87 was even on the field.
*Nick Boyle: On the other hand, when Boyle ran with the twos and threes he was constantly finding holes underneath.
*Rick Wagner: Great to see him in action. He was eased back into the flow of things, with Jah Reid (a slimmed down, trim, and fit Jah Reid I may add) running with the ones at right tackle when Wagner wasn’t in.
*Matt Schaub: Let’s hope Flacco stays healthy. Yikes. Everything is underneath with him. The one time he had Jeremy Butler open deep on the outside, he under threw Butler which caused Butler to get an offensive pass interference penalty.

*Terrell Suggs: He may have lost weight since OTAs, but he has an obvious “muffin-top” in the midsection. He is the undeniable leader among the defense, coaching players up, and playfully messing with Flacco in a hurry-up field goal situation—grabbing his arm as Flacco tried to get off the field so the Justin Tucker et al could attempt a field goal (which he drilled, of course).
*Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan: Yes, losing Haloti Ngata and his veteran presence will be a loss, but these two are nasty. Williams blew up several running plays in the backfield and Jernigan had a relentless motor.
*Brent Urban: I loved the way this kid played last year before he injured his knee, and he is quite a physically impressive dude.
*Chris Canty: He looked in great shape.
*Kapron Lewis-Moore: He was very active in drills and 11-on-11’s. Great to see him healthy and bouncing around the field.
*Steven Means: A small play that not many may have noticed: on a nice mid-range catch and run by wide receiver Aldrick Robinson (one of his only bright spots of the day) Means forced a no-doubt-about-it fumble which someone in the secondary recovered. Great small play that proved Means' hustle and determination down field on the back end of a play. 
*Za’Darius Smith: He was very active on the edge, beating Eugene Monroe for what would have been a sack.
*Rashaan Melvin: Harbaugh may think Melvin is a pit bull, but it was like the Patriots playoff game all over again. Flacco picked on Melvin often and with great results.
*Matt Elam: First day was not kind to Elam. After a very well thrown ball by Flacco to Smith on a skinny post in between three defenders, Harbaugh was screaming, “I’ve told you five times!” over and over. Now, I can’t say for certain, but Elam was in on coverage, he came off the field after that play, and Harbaugh was clearly barking in his direction.

Personal Highlights:
*Steve Smith threw a pair of his Superman receiving gloves to a youth player from the Baltimore Golden Jackals, setting off cheers from the players and coaches and fans. I was standing about 10 feet away and these kids were ecstatic, rightfully so. I talked to one of the coaches after practice. It sounds like they are trying to build a solid, positive program for their community.

*After he overheard me say his name, Ryan Jensen gave a big smile and wave to my son. Very cool. The close proximity of training camp is still alive and well.

*My six year old son, upon watching Smith throw the gloves to the youth football player, said, “Dad, is that player who threw the gloves one of the kids too?” Smith is of smaller stature…

*Steven Means, the outside linebacker that I am rooting for to make the team, put in some extra reps after practice. From afar, I gave him a shout-out to keep at it. He stopped, turned in my direction, and flashed a smile. I am pulling for him!

On the precipice of training camp, it is obligatory to have a 53 man roster prediction. However, when one actually examines this roster, there are going to be some really tough decisions for the Ravens’ brass. There will be some very talented players cut that will make another team. These players may not be practice squad players for the Ravens because other teams may swoop in and sign them. There is that much talent and depth on this team.

When examining the roster, barring injury, there are 46 secure spots. One could make a case that there are even more spots that are secure, but to illustrate the difficulty the Ravens are going to have when selecting players for this team, we will start at the 46 spots and start to whittle the other players down to arrive at 53. Below are what I consider to be the locks to make the final team.

By my count, there are 17 legitimate players who have a legitimate chance of making the final 53-man roster. 

“Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.”

Friday Night Lights. One of the more excellently made TV shows just so happened to be about football. The full, well-drawn and defined characters are what I loved about this show, and it is why I was a faithful watcher to the bitter end. The relationships were mature, fully fleshed out, intricate, yet not too sensationalized. The presentation of the marriage between Eric and Tami Taylor was the most accurate portrayal of a real-life marriage ever captured by Hollywood.

But that is not why I am using Coach Taylor’s famous mantra and battle cry, “Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.” This captures the Ravens’ vision as they have overhauled their roster since winning Super Bowl XLVII.

ESPN’s John Clayton is on record of saying that a team needs to find two or three starters from every draft if that team hopes to stay competitive. (ESPN’s Future Power Rankings) To fully understand the Ravens transition, we will look at how the team used the draft from 2013 through 2015 and see if Clayton’s theory will hold true for the Ravens. The term “starter” is arbitrary in today’s NFL. With teams using many sub-packages on both offense and defense, there really is no starting 11 on either offense or defense. For this exercise, we will take into account “key contributors” when analyzing the drafts.

To get a fuller picture of upcoming change, the 2012 draft class that will be eligible for free agency needs to be considered. While an overall disappointing draft class, this draft class found starters at the top of the draft in outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw and guard Kelechi Osemele. When forecasting the roster beyond this season, one has to take into account whether or not the Ravens will re-sign these two players. The feeling here is that Ravens will not. Looking at the 2015 draft, possible replacements are waiting in the wings. More on that below.

Following Super Bowl XLVII, the Ravens began to rebuild the roster by focusing on the defense. The team drafted defensive players with their first three picks, hoping to fortify the middle of the defense. While it appears that the team missed on first-round pick safety Matt Elam and second-round pick middle linebacker Arthur Brown, they found Clayton’s three prerequisite starters in the later rounds of the draft in nose tackle Brandon Williams, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Rick Wagner. In reality, the 2013 draft was a bonafide success.

In terms of finding starters and key contributors, the 2014 draft seems to be the draft that has brought the most value. The Ravens have easily found three starters in middle linebacker C.J. Mosley, defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, and tight end Crockett Gilmore. Looking into the crystal ball, safety Terrence Brooks, defensive end Brent Urban, and center/guard John Urschel might be possible starters down the line. They will certainly be key contributors this year (health pending). In addition, the Ravens found great value in offensive tackle James Hurst in their undrafted free agency class.

While re-stocking the defense was the main focus of the draft in 2013 and 2014, the Ravens used free agency to patch together the offense. Following the Super Bowl, the Ravens relied on veteran free agents in the skill positions such as tight end Dallas Clark, wide receiver Brandon Stokley, tight end Owen Daniels, and wide receiver Steve Smith. Trades for tackle Eugene Monroe and center Jeremy Zuttah reshaped the offensive line.

Clearly it is too soon to evaluate the 2015 draft (the players haven’t even taken the field yet!), but there is much excitement and anticipation in this class making an impact. In fact, if these players pan out as hoped, there are potentially four or five future starters or key contributors. This is the draft the Ravens drafted heavily on the offensive side of the ball. The hope, unlike the 2013 draft when the Ravens invested early picks on defensive players that have not developed (Elam and Brown), is that the Ravens found offensive weapons in wide receiver Breshad Perriman and tight end Maxx Williams.

In a parallel of the 2013 draft where offensive players (Juszczyk and Wagner) were found in what was thought of as a defensive draft, the Ravens may have found defensive help in what is considered a top-heavy offensive 2015 draft. Drafted in the later rounds were defensive tackle Carl Davis, outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith, and cornerback Tray Walker.

Below are two charts showing the transition from the Super Bowl XLVII roster to what may be this year’s starting roster.

There is a plethora of home-grown talent on this year’s roster on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. From just the drafts since 2013, there are 12 “starters,” which outperforms Clayton’s theory. I am not really sure why he comments that the Ravens don’t have much young talent in his analysis in the Future Power Rankings. To further emphasize how the Ravens rely on the draft, there are a total of 20 Ravens-drafted “starters” on this ream. This team builds through the draft and uses free agency to quietly plug holes—Steve Smith, Elvis Dumervil, Kyle Arrington, Kendrick Lewis, and Daryl Smith to name the recent signings.

Now, in a futile yet fun, exercise--what if the 2015 draft picks contribute, develop and are not busts? What might the roster look like next year, 2016?

Sure, there are some reaches on both sides of the ball. James Hurst may not be a starting-caliber offensive tackle as he may be more of a swing tackle. Darren Waller may not even make this year’s team. And without a doubt, the secondary is unsettled at best. The team still needs existing players to develop (Terrence Brooks, Matt Elam and Tray Walker) and more players need to brought into the fold. This is a make-or-break year for Elam.

However, the Ravens have clearly had an eye to the future since drafting after their recent Super Bowl win. John Urschel and Robert Myers, two later round picks that have and will benefit from offensive line coach Juan Castillo, may be the heirs apparent to free agent guard Kelechi Osemele and cap causality center Jeremy Zuttah. The Ravens are starting to address the veteran outside linebacking corps of Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil with Za’Darius Smith and waiver wire pickup Steven Means waiting, learning, and developing in the wings.

Good gracious. There is an overabundance of young talent on this team—21 potential “starters” recently drafted since 2013. I am not sure which roster Clayton was reading when he added his analysis to the Future Power Rankings.

The Ravens and Coach Eric Taylor: “Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.”

While last year’s hire of Gary Kubiak to be the Ravens’ offensive coordinator was a slam dunk, there is a reason to give pause before celebrating this year’s hire of Marc Trestman. To his credit, Trestman comes highly recommended by players who have played under him and he is known to be a student of the game with a high acumen of offensive concepts. He has coached under great offensive minds like Bud Grant, Marty Schottenheimer, George Seifert, Bobby Ross, and Jon Gruden. In addition, he is known as the “Quarterback Whisperer,” as he has maximized the talent from quarterbacks he has worked with over the years.

These are reasons to celebrate his hiring. But what should give Ravens fans pause is how he orchestrates his offenses. More on that in a moment.

The Ravens open the season against the defending AFC North champion, Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens get a chance to put the turbulent offseason behind them. They get a chance to try out there new offensive scheme and its new additions—receiver Steve Smith, center Jeremy Zuttah, right tackle Rick Wagner, H-back Kyle Juszczyk, and tight end Owen Daniel. They get a chance to see the infused youth on defense in action—linebacker C.J. Mosley, defensive tackle Brandon Williams, cornerback Asa Jackson, and safety/nickelback Terrence Brooks. Like every other NFL franchise, the Ravens get a chance to start anew.

And most importantly, they get a chance at redemption. Missing the playoffs for the first time in five years stung last year, and the Ravens are looking to right the ship. The Ravens get a chance to make a statement over the next three weeks as they open against divisional foes Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns—a crucial stretch of games that will set the tone for the rest of the season.

The NFL offseaon and training camp rhetoric ends today at 1pm. Hallelujah. Who’s ready for the 2014 NFL season?

Here are today’s plotlines. 

Defensive Line Needs to Control the Line of Scrimmage
In my mind, this is the pivotal matchup of the game. The Ravens must do what they can to make the Bengals, and Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton, one dimensional. With Bengals’ new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson calling the plays, the Bengals look to employ a more balanced offense which means a return to the run game. The Bengals have a multi-dimensional backfield in Gionvani Bernard, Jeremy Hill, and Cedric Pearson. The Ravens will need to control the line of scrimmage with Chris Canty and Courtney Upshaw setting the edges, and Brandon Williams clogging the middle. Terrell Suggs needs to stay disciplined and Haloti Ngata has to be disruptive. If the line can dictate play, it will allow linebackers C.J. Mosley and Daryl Smith to make plays from sideline to sideline in helping corral the Bengals’ run game.

In addition, with the giant question marks surrounding the Ravens’ secondary, the defensive line—and entire front-seven—needs to get pressure on Dalton. If the Ravens can turn the screws on the Bengals’ offensive line without a heavy usage of blitzes, we could see “Bad Dalton” today. If not, Dalton will be able to disperse the ball to his wide array of offensive weapons—tight ends Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert, the aforementioned running backs, and superstar receiver A.J. Green and underrated receiver Mohamed Sanu.

Revamped Offensive Line
This is a chance for the Ravens to show progress has been made in the running game. The new pieces on the offensive line, and the tweaked zone blocking scheme, get a chance in a real game, in a game that matters. This is not a make or break game for the offense, or the offensive line. If the line struggles, all is not lost. The Ravens face a very stout defense in the Bengals. However, you would like to see the Ravens keep the running game relevant. I am not looking for a necessarily dominant day for the offensive line, but I will be looking for Ravens to create opportunities for the running backs and help keep Joe Flacco clean in the pocket.

Wrinkles vs. Wrinkles
Both teams enter the contest with changes on the offensive side of the ball, scheme-wise. Offensive coordinator Jackson for the Bengals looks to bring a clearer vision to the Bengals with an emphasis to the run game, and Ravens’ offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak brings his version of the West Coast Offense. Whose offensive wrinkles will catch the other’s defense off guard? With these teams knowing each other so well, a little unpredictability could go a long way in deciding today’s outcome.

Who Wins the Big-play Battle?
The Ravens would love to bring the big plays back to their offense. Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones, and Steve Smith have the speed to stretch defenses. Expect a few rollouts and misdirection bootlegs to get one of these players open deep down the field.

The Bengals want to get superstar receiver Green, a Raven killer, the ball deep. They also have budding star Bernard, who is dangerous in space.

Unsung Player of the Game
In lieu of a prediction of the score of the game, I will pick a Raven player each week that I think will have an impact on the game. I won’t pick an obvious player (like Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Terrell Suggs, etc.), but a player that flies a bit under the radar. Think of this as the “Corey Graham 2012 Postseason Award.” Who would have predicted that Graham would have been that year’s postseason-player-of-the-game in Denver?

The Swiss Army knife, H-back Kyle Juszczyk will make his presence felt. The Waggle play was a staple in the preseason, but I look for “Juice” to get open down the seam. I see him having a much bigger impact than tight end Owen Daniels.