I love that tweet from Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times.

The rhetoric didn’t seem too over-the-top this past week. Maybe it was because people didn’t expect the Ravens to steal this game. Maybe it was because both teams looked horrible. Maybe it was because the Ravens stayed on the West Coast for the week and the three hour time difference didn’t allow the sound bites to be readily available. Or maybe, I just didn’t listen to all of the naysayers.

With regards to the NFL, people react and overreact on a weekly basis. The NFL should be treated as one’s golf game. You are never as good as your last golf shot, and you are never as bad as your last golf shot. The parity in the league is the great equalizer.

This post is the Reality Assessment. Although a win would have been fantastic last week, the loss to the Broncos isn’t the end of the world. However, a loss this week would be a very difficult hole for the Ravens to escape. As I stated last week, a 4-3 record would be acceptable after the grueling first seven games of the season. The second two game West Coast trip against the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers looks daunting—the Niners look much better than advertised, and Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer have a penchant for carving up the Ravens.

Therefore, the Ravens need to win today against the Oakland Raiders. Unfortunately, the ailments that doomed the Ravens last week will again be tested today.

Here are today’s plotlines.

Offensive Scheme, Part I: Dealing with the Pass Rush
Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman was too conservative and didn’t make enough adjustments. Denver’s pass rush was almost immediate on quarterback Joe Flacco. The Raiders are also deep on the defensive line and boast two feared speed pass rushers in Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith. Mack had 52 total pressures last year, per Pro Football Focus. The troubled Smith is a sack artist with 44 sacks in 51 career regular season games.

With backup left tackle James Hurst getting the start today and with right tackle Rick Wagner‘s struggles with speed rushers, Trestman needs to give them some help via the tight ends and running backs chipping on their way to their pass routes.

The Ravens need to use the opponent’s speed, aggressiveness, and over-pursuit to their advantage. The Ravens need to incorporate misdirections in the run and pass game. They need to attempt a few screens just to keep the defense honest. Be creative, but don’t get too cute.

Offensive Scheme, Part II: Playmakers
Last I checked, the only new player to be infused onto the Ravens this week was defensive player Jason Babin (a nice signing under the circumstances, by the way). In other words, the team still lacks speed on offense—and it will until Breshad Perriman steps onto the field.

I sound like a broken record here, but the team needs to manufacture speed through their scheme.

Why did it take until the fourth quarter last week for the Ravens to attack the middle of the field? Yes, the Broncos were giving up that part of the field because the Ravens needed a touchdown to win in the waning moments. I would expect to see more of Michael Campanaro and his route running skills over the middle.

In addition, I would expect to see the tight ends better utilized. Even though Crockett Gilmore didn’t make the play at the end of the game, he is a big, imposing body over the middle. Maxx Williams doesn’t have freak-ish Rob Gronkowski speed, but he has enough speed to exploit the seams of the field.

Finally, take Flacco’s advice. He says in the article from the Baltimore Sun, "If nothing else, at least it lets teams know that we're going to do that and have the confidence in ourselves in doing that." Again, try and keep defenses honest. The only deep shot taken last week, yes only one was taken the entire game, was a 22 yard pass and catch to Marlon Brown. Brown may be the Ravens’ and Flacco’s best bet down field because Brown’s big body is beneficial when executing the back-shoulder catch and throw.

Improved Secondary? Maybe or Maybe Not
I agree with most—the secondary did well. But it was hard to ascertain whether or not the secondary was good or Broncos’ quarterback Peyton Manning was bad. That sentence was actually awkward to type. Manning struggled against the Ravens and he wasn’t much better Thursday against the Kansas City Chiefs. Against the Ravens, Manning was 0 for 4 on targets beyond 20 yards and he was 2 of 8 on targets of 10 yards or more. The Ravens’ secondary was barely tested.

When the secondary was tested, they were beat at least three times deep but Manning uncustomary missed on those throws. Had he connected, it would have drastically changed the views on both Manning and the Ravens’ secondary.

The Ravens will be tested by Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Though he has an injury to his right hand, Carr has decent arm strength. Though he struggled with his deep accuracy, he was last in the league in PFF’s deep accuracy—behind the likes of Geno Smith and Blake Bortles—he was 5th in league with the number of times throwing the ball 20 or more yards downfield.

The Raiders should take some deep shots and continue to test the Ravens’ secondary—especially with rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper.

Moreover, the secondary is only effective as the pass rush…

The Suggs Effect
The loss of outside linebacker Terrell Suggs is big from a depth and leadership standpoint. There are varying opinions on whether or not the Ravens will miss his production, or lack thereof. Many people pointed to the fact that Suggs had no tackles and no sacks last week. I agree, he was barely noticeable last week until he was seen on camera with his injury.

I also agree that his presence will be more felt in the run game. He is exceptional, when he is discipline and not freelancing, when setting the edge. The numbers by PFF bear that out as Suggs was a top six performer against the run in both 2013 and 2014.

Suggs usually has gets his sacks in bunches, but he is a top five player when you account QB sack, hurries, and hits. There is more to affecting the passing game than just sacks. Suggs puts on the heat and defenses account for him on every play.

The reality is the Ravens are without Suggs and need to move forward. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees will scheme to put his pass rushers—Courtney Upshaw, Elvis Dumervil, Za’Darius Smith, and Jason Babin (if only Steven Means was healthy!)—so that they will have the best opportunity to succeed. Today, we will begin to see if that is a reality.

According to PFF, the Raiders allowed 14 combined pressure—sacks, hits, and hurries. That was tied for 7th in the league last week. In contrast, the Ravens, with Suggs, caused 18 pressures.

Unsung Player to Watch, aka the “Corey Graham 2012 Postseason Award”
In lieu of a prediction of the score of the game, I will pick a Raven player each week that I think will have an impact on the game. I won’t pick an obvious player (like Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Terrell Suggs, etc.), but a player that flies a bit under the radar. Think of this as the “Corey Graham 2012 Postseason Award.” Who would have predicted that Graham would have been a postseason-player-of-the-game in Denver in 2012?

I am going with wide receiver Michael Campanaro. I think the Ravens will get him some increased looks in the passing game—he only had 11 snaps on offense last week. Campanaro may also be given the green light in the punt return game, Steve Smith notwithstanding. That being said, my pick the previous week usually comes through the following week. So, expect Gilmore to have a good day.

Ravens football is finally back. The Ravens square off against the Denver Broncos in a primetime matchup in the coveted late Sunday afternoon slot (this timeslot draws more viewers than any other timeslot—more than Sunday night, more than Monday night). The opening to a daunting 2015 season begins today in Denver.

The Ravens do not have the luxury of padding their win total as they did last year when they faced the very weak AFC South and NFC South. This year the Ravens face two of the tougher divisions in football in the AFC West and the NFC West. In addition, the team opens up the 2015 season with five road games within the first seven games, with two sets of back-to-back games on the West Coast—weeks one and two against the Broncos and Oakland Raiders, and weeks six and seven against the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals. These four games bracket the other three games where the Ravens face all three AFC North divisional foes.

The first seven weeks of the season loom large for the Ravens. A 4-3 record would be an acceptable outcome, setting up the team for another playoff trip. A 5-2 record would go a long way in the team accomplishing their goal of securing one, if not two, home playoff games. The question is if the Ravens can steal one of these three games—at Denver, at Pittsburgh, or at Arizona. Even at that rate, the Ravens would need to beat the always difficult Bengals at home—something that eluded the Ravens last year—and beat the 49ers in San Francisco; neither of which are givens.

Aside from the schedule, the Ravens face other challenges. Training camp and the preseason offered no answers to the Ravens most pressing questions entering the 2015 season. Is the secondary fixed? Who will provide the complimentary skill set to wide receiver Steve Smith? How will the rush defense hold up with defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan replacing the departed Haloti Ngata? Who will emerge from returner extraordinaire (at least from 2012 through 2013) Jacoby Jones’ shadow?

As it stands today against the Broncos, the secondary remains a question mark due to injuries (again), rookie wide receiver Breshad Perriman is still injured, Jernigan will likely miss today’s game, and no one knows for certain who will return kicks (the guess here is that undrafted free agent running back Terrence Magee returns kickoffs and wide receiver Michael Campanaro returns punts). Who are the 2015 Ravens?

With these plotlines surely to be the focal point of many, I am intrigued by some other storylines that are going to play a big part in today’s game.

The old adage of “speed kills” could be what kills the Ravens this season; specifically, on offense. The lack of speed on the outside could make the Ravens easier to defend this year.

First, let’s be clear. Offensive speed is needed to get the attention of the opposing team’s defense. It draws the safeties further away from the line of scrimmage. This opens up space for the underneath passing routes. It opens up the running game. It allows for effective play-action, which in return, helps both the run and pass games. Speed stretches the field vertically.

An offense doesn’t necessarily need an elite Randy Moss-type receiver who has size, speed, and catching ability to be effective. Sometimes an offense needs to merely present the threat of speed to get a defense’s attention. The offense needs to have functional speed. In many ways, this was the main function of former Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith. The threat of the home run from quarterback Joe Flacco to Smith opened so many other options for the Ravens offense.

From Chris Brown’s The Art of Smart Football, “…speed gives a vertical receiver a chance to get deep, but even if he does not actually get open, he still stretches the defense, thus opening up the entire field. Speed distorts defenses, forcing them to cover wider swaths of the field, exposing the weak defenders and the voids around them.”